Introduction
The Canadian Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship has announced the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, which projects the number of permanent residents Canada plans to admit each year and sets targets for overall admissions per immigration category.
Including controlled targets for temporary residents, including foreign workers; the plan aims to control immigration growth to improve management of the immigration system as well as ease pressure on Canada’s infrastructure.
Impact:
Medium
What has changed?
The plan is expected to result in a marginal population decline of 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before returning to a population growth of 0.8% in 2027. This will be attained through reducing permanent resident targets over the next three years:
- from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025
- from 500,000 to 380,000 in 2026
Ending in a target of 365,000 permanent residents in 2027. Although the approximate ratio of economic, family class, and humanitarian immigrants targeted remains the same, the result is fewer places for individuals applying under the Express Entry and Provincial Nomination Programs.
Furthermore, the plan aims to reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026. Capturing new arrivals only, the arrival targets are set at 673,650 in 2025; 516,600 in 2026; and 543,600 in 2027
International students and temporary workers admitted under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program and the International Mobility Program are included within these targets.
Visitors, permit extensions or those who make in-country study/work permit applications are not included.
Who is affected?
The plan will affect those who wish to apply for permanent residence in Canada, as well as new temporary residents.
What to expect /impact?
The Canadian government expects to initially see the temporary population decline in 2025 and 2026, with a small increase in 2027. In order to meet the projected numbers and with the objective of addressing public backlash relating to what is seen as excessive immigration levels in Canada, the Canadian government has in recent months issued a string of program changes and updates.
An example of this are the recent changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) programs, specifically to the High Wage LMIA stream (HW LMIA). The threshold for HW LMIA’s is now the median wage plus 20% which “represents an increase to the existing threshold of between $5 to $8 per hour depending on the province or territory of work.” As such, roles whose wage falls between the median rate, and the median rate plus 20%, now fall within the more restrictive Low Wage LMIA stream resulting in a greater number of jobs expected to be subject to the stricter rules of the low-wage stream. In essence, the Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) has raised the median wage threshold by 20%.
The above is designed to prioritise the protection of Canadian workers. It is forecast that the result of this change will be a shift in 34,000 positions from the high-wage stream to the low-wage stream, which may result in as many as 20,000 fewer positions being approved through the TFW program when combined with other policies.
What to need to do
For further information on the immigration levels plan for Canada please contact the Sterling Lexicon immigration team at immigration@sterlinglexicon.com
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